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Werriwa could swing hard against Labor (on primary votes) due to cost of living and mortgage stress as this is a mortgage belt. The Gaza issue would also be toxic for Labor since there’s a large presence of people with South Asian Muslim or Middle Eastern heritage.
The combined vote last election for minor right parties – UAP, LDP, ONP, was pretty insane at 23%. I don’t think it’ll be as high next time. The Greens could pick up voters disaffected by the Gaza issue or are looking for a third party alternative.
From what I remember the UAP and Liberal Democrats (now Libertarians) each polled above 10% based on the redistribution. If a lot of that goes to the Liberals, they could come very close to winning here (or win but it’s increasingly unlikely due to Palestine).
I’d outright favour the Libs here if it weren’t for Gaza.
Libs preselected early and allowed a big enough runway for Sam Kayal to campaign.
Been very present at train stations and shopping centres.
NSW exec very bullish on picking this up; some good polling out of Reid and Parra recently as well
@scart the two main groups of muslims here are iraqi and lebanese. besides labor havent overwhelmingly advantaged themselseves here either o the issue. i doubt the issue is going to matter much i think the margin here will be small either way
With respect to the Liberal Democrats they did well here because they were 1st placed on the ballot paper this was the same on Bruce/Hotham as well so i think there vote is inflated due to confusion and probably Liberal voters anyway. I suspect the UAP took some Muslim votes last time and if any of that swings to Greens and flows back in preferences to Labor that will help them. I think it is knife edge i do agree with Scart and James above. This is one area the Liberals were actually making inroads into the Muslim community due to the popularity of Ned Mannoun and Labor has had a serious of low profile, low energy MP since Latham.
even the greens preferences split weaker then usual here. labor only got 60% of the greens 2nd prefernce. i think Stanley will suffer a greater the avg swing but whether its enough to unseat her is another thing. 2028 she could be in trouble though
Whilst I believe the Liberals will overtake Labor on primaries, Labor will have some path to holding on.
UAP and LDP scored double-digits at many polling and prepoll places in 2022. Their vote was largely driven by anti-vax and anti-lockdown sentiment. In much of this area, people were heavily locked down, subjected to curfews and had to queue for hours for Covid PCR tests during the pandemic. As Nimalan mentioned, LDP was top of the ballot and it helped.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Greens go back to third place because of their more pro-Gaza stance (which will be more popular in the east) and also their left-wing economic policies.
The Gaza issue will not help Labor on primaries but it will increase the Green vote some of which could be at the expense of the UAP and the Liberals so it depends on preference flow.
the gaza may not help them but it wont hinder them Stanley came out against israel about 3 weeks ago but i dont think the issue wil determine the seat. anyone who votes for labor on the isssue is likely already voting labor
@ John
I disagree with the last sentence in this seat because this one of the few areas where Libs were making inroads into the Muslim community with Ned Mannoun. If October 7 did not happen and Ned Mannoun was the candidate i would predict it will be an much easier gain for the Libs.
@nimalan doesnt matter if you win by an inch or a mile. winning is winning.